Using a Mathematical Model to Predict the Likelihood of Insurgent Attacks

University of Miami physicist Neil Johnson and his co-authors have found that there is a “generic way in which humans carry out insurgency and terrorism when faced by a large powerful state force, and this is irrespective of background history, motivation, ideology, politics, and location”. Their study is featured as the cover of the December 17, 2009 issue of Nature:

We have found a unified model of modern insurgent wars that shows a fundamental pattern in the apparent chaos of wars,” says Johnson. “In practical terms, our analysis can be used to create and explore scenarios, make predictions, and assess risks for present and future wars.

Here’s a link to the full story that appeared in UM’s E-Veritas publication. This paper will make for some nice holiday reading.


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Filed under Applications, Modeling, War

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